James Trafford vs Ederson: Who should be Man City's No.1 goalkeeper?
Having secured a return to his boyhood club, the new arrival from Burnley hasn't come to the Etihad to sit on the bench
Cole Palmer knew. Two years before he glared at Donald Trump during Chelsea's Club World Cup trophy lift, the forward went viral for another reaction towards the end of a major final. That was in the last minute of the Under-21 European Championship clash between England and Spain, when Palmer was on the substitutes bench alongside Emile Smith-Rowe while watching James Trafford face down Abel Ruiz from the penalty spot.
Palmer's deflected free-kick had put England on the verge of victory, but a VAR-awarded spot-kick was awarded deep in stoppage time, offering Spain the perfect chance to level and force extra-time. But Palmer, who had grown up with Trafford in Manchester City's academy, had a feeling.
"Bet you he saves this. Watch. My guy man," he said. And once Trafford turned away Ruiz's penalty and then kept out Aimar Oroz's rebounded effort with his feet, Smith-Rowe went straight up to Palmer and reminded him: "Cole! You said". Palmer responded: "Do you know how good this guy is? Do you know how good he is?"
At the time, however, City did not know how good Trafford was, as they had just sanctioned his transfer to Burnley. Or, more accurately, they did not yet believe he was the finished article. But they must have had a similar inkling to Palmer, as they placed a clause in his Clarets contract that allowed them to match any future offers for the youngster.
Newcastle's recent bid for Trafford forced City into a decision on whether to match that offer, and they decided to go for it, bringing the goalkeeper back to the club that he left in 2023 without making his first-team debut. Now comes the next big decision for Pep Guardiola: whether to start the season with Trafford or stick with Ederson for the 2025-26 campaign.
Getty Record-setting standard
Trafford joined City's academy in 2015 aged 12, and in 2021 began searching for senior football elsewhere, as he headed initially on loan to Accrington Stanley in League One before jumping ship to Bolton Wanderers in the same division the following January. He extended that loan spell with Bolton by another season before jumping two divisions up to sign for Premier League-bound Burnley, who had earned promotion under City's legendary captain Vincent Kompany.
Trafford made his Premier League bow for the Clarets in a 3-0 defeat to City which proved to be the start of a disappointing season for both Burnley and the goalkeeper, who lost his place in the team to Arijanet Muric towards the end of the campaign. The final straw for Kompany was a botched pass at Crystal Palace which led to team-mate Josh Brownhill getting sent off, but after Burnley were relegated, Muric joined newly-promoted Ipswich Town while Trafford stayed with the Clarets in the Championship.
It was in the second tier of English football where Trafford revived his reputation among Burnley fans and reached legendary status. In January, he saved two penalties against Sunderland in one game, and the following month surpassed the 1000-minute mark without having conceded a goal. In March, he broke a Championship record when he kept a 12th-successive clean sheet, and Burnley ended the campaign having conceded just 16 goals, smashing the previous record of 20, as Trafford played every game bar one.
AdvertisementGetty Fifteen-year low
While Trafford was performing those heroics, his former club had no end of goalkeeping troubles. City conceded 44 goals in the Premier League, their most for 15 years, with Ederson often blamed for the leakage. The Brazil international was dropped for a three-week period after a terrible display against Feyenoord in November having been partly culpable for all of the goals conceded in the shock 3-3 draw, and when he returned to the team to face Juventus, he produced another horrible display.
In Ederson's favour was the fact that his back-up, Stefan Ortega, also struggled. The German conceded 17 goals in a 10-game spell in the league during which City won just three times, and he was pilloried by Guardiola for conceding two late goals at Brentford, which preceded Ortega conceding five times in the thrashing by Arsenal. He ended a bad season on an even lower note, too, by losing the FA Cup final to Crystal Palace, even if he could not be blamed for the only goal of the game.
Ortega is expected to leave City after Trafford's arrival, meaning Ederson will be the Englishman's main competition for the No.1 spot next season. There has, however, been no shortage of speculation regarding the Brazilian's future ever since it became clear that Ederson wanted to leave City in the summer of 2024 when a lucrative offer came in from Saudi Arabia. Guardiola persuaded him to stay, but there have been further reports of interest from Napoli and Galatasaray this summer. GOAL understands, however, that no concrete offer ever arrived, and the man himself said during the Club World Cup that reports of him moving on were "fake news".
GettySituation suits everyone
Speculation over Ederson's future is likely to continue, as he heads into the final year of his contract with City. He is set to turn 32 the day after the team's opening match of the season at Wolves, and unlike with the experienced Ortega, Ederson is now competing with a player nine years his junior who should be approaching his prime years.
In many ways the situation is ideal for all parties. Ederson can begin the season as No.1 with Trafford breathing down his neck and keeping him on his toes, ready to take his place if he slips up too often. And if both club and player cannot agree a contract extension, then Ederson will be free to choose his next destination by the end of the season, by which time Trafford will be in a better place to take the baton from him as the first choice 'keeper.
Trafford, however, has not come back to City to warm the bench, even for a year. He is renowned for being supremely confident and believes he is good enough to be No.1 right now. He has never been shy of talking up his ability, either, having told aninterviewer "I know I'm world-class" after Burnley's win over Watford last season.
He has certainly looked it over the past 12 months, and even though he was playing one division down, he performed at a far higher level than Ederson.
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Getty Images SportShot-stopping prowess
Trafford did not just concede so few goals because Burnley's defence was rock solid, even though it helped. He faced 103 on target shots last term and saved 85 of them (85 percent); Ederson, by comparison, faced 78 attempts while just saving 53 (69.2%).
Trafford also outperformed Ederson in more detailed metrics such as post-shot expected goals – an statistic that measures how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot – minus the number of goals conceded. It effectively amounts to the number of goals a 'keeper prevents; the figure for Trafford was 11.8, while Ederson's was five. The data, whilst allowing for the differences in quality between the Premier League and Championship, suggests that Trafford was a better shot-stopper last season than Ederson.
When it comes to successfully stopping crosses, Ederson and Trafford performed roughly the same. Ederson, however, still performed comfortably better than Trafford in the areas you would expect him to still dominate. He made 1.90 defensive actions outside of his area per 90 minutes, with an average distance of 17.5 yards; Trafford made 1.11 per 90 minutes, with an average distance of 14.2 yards.